Inflation Expectations Marginal Effect Shaoxing Textile Industry "General Up"

Zhang Zixiang managed to connect three international phones within five minutes. “They all came from overseas,” he said, putting the phone down and adding that buyers are constantly reaching out to him on a daily basis. This season has brought back memories of the most prosperous years in the textile industry. Over the past week, his BMW X6 has been covering nearly a thousand miles each day, carrying hundreds of thousands of meters of orders as he personally visits textile factory owners. These manufacturers have prioritized his orders at Shaoxing Co., Ltd., ensuring they have enough capacity for his trade. By November, Zhang noticed a significant surge in overseas orders. Although during the height of the financial crisis, his company never faced a shortage of business, maintaining an average foreign trade growth rate of about 30%. However, this recent boom still caught him off guard. He realized that good business is not always a family affair. Since the financial crisis, he has met with 4-5 textile factory owners every day, helping them find ways to utilize their production capacity. But by November, many of these people had disappeared, and prices started to rise sharply. “All kinds of cotton fabrics have increased by 0.5 to 1 yuan per meter in just a week,” Zhang explained. “White cloth is showing a general upward trend.” Textile mills began refusing credit transactions, forcing Zhang to pay in cash or checks. To adapt, he quickly adjusted his business strategy. On one hand, he worked closely with mills to set prices. “Previously, the sampling process took half a month, but now, once the sample comes out, the price has already changed.” His two warehouses started stocking goods. Years of experience in foreign trade told him that after nearly a year of inventory digestion, foreign companies are now purchasing large quantities. Xu Huanming, secretary of the Shaoxing County Committee, told the newspaper that demand is just one of the factors driving the textile industry’s hot performance. A deeper reason is the sharp rise in raw material prices—cotton, coal, crude oil, and dyes have all surged. By the end of November, the price of high-combed 40-piece pure cotton yarn reached over 27,000 yuan per ton, up by 5,000 yuan from the beginning of the month. Cotton elastic satin white fabric rose from 9.4 yuan/m to 10.3 yuan/m, while other conventional cotton products saw a 10% increase. Inflation expectations have created a marginal effect, yet Zhang has turned down many orders. “The old pricing model for fabrics is too transparent, and profit margins are already at rock bottom,” he said. Recent transactions involve orders of 500,000 to 600,000 meters, mostly going to small customers, accounting for about one-third of his annual business volume. “If we follow the current trend, who would dare to price orders?” According to Sun Zhongfu, economic and trade secretary of Shaoxing County, 197 printing and dyeing enterprises are now operating at full capacity, significantly improving their operational quality. Before this year, in October, sales in the printing and dyeing industry only increased by 5.8%, but profit growth jumped from -7.1% in February to 35.2% in October. As the textile industry accounts for around 70% of the county's total industrial output, its recovery has driven overall industrial improvement. In the first three quarters, industrial output increased in 31 sectors, up from 21 in the first half of the year, representing 64.5% of total industries. The growth rate of 21 industries rose by 67.7% compared to June.

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