Inflation Expectations Marginal Effect Shaoxing Textile Industry "General Up"

Zhang Zixiang managed to connect three phones within five minutes. "They all came from overseas," he said, setting the phone down and explaining that buyers are constantly reaching out almost every day. This season has brought him back to the peak years of the textile industry. Over the past week, his BMW X6 has been driving nearly a thousand miles a day, carrying hundreds of thousands of meters of orders as he personally visits textile factory owners. These manufacturers have prioritized his trade at Shaoxing Co., Ltd., ensuring their capacity is fully utilized for his business. By November, Zhang noticed a sharp increase in overseas orders. Although during the worst of the financial crisis, his company never faced a lack of business, maintaining an average foreign trade growth rate of around 30%. However, this sudden surge still surprised him. He realized that good business is not just about luck—it's about strategy. After the crisis, he met with 4-5 textile factory owners daily, helping them find solutions for overcapacity. But by November, many of these people had disappeared. Meanwhile, prices were rising fast. "All kinds of cotton cloth increased by 0.5 to 1 yuan per meter in just a week," Zhang explained. He noted that white fabric was showing a broad upward trend. Textile mills began refusing credit transactions, forcing Zhang to pay in cash or checks—sometimes even in advance. Faced with this change, Zhang quickly adjusted his business strategy. On one hand, he worked closely with mills to set prices. "Previously, the sampling process took half a month, but now, by the time the sample comes out, the price has already changed completely." His two warehouses started stocking up on goods. Years of experience in foreign trade told him that after nearly a year of inventory digestion, foreign companies would soon be purchasing in large quantities. Xu Huanming, secretary of the Shaoxing County Committee, told the newspaper that demand is just one of the factors driving the textile boom. A deeper reason is the sharp rise in raw material prices—cotton, coal, crude oil, and dyes. By the end of November, the price of high-combed 40-count pure cotton yarn reached over 27,000 yuan per ton, up 5,000 yuan from the start of the month. Cotton elastic satin white fabric rose from 9.4 yuan to 10.3 yuan per meter, while other conventional cotton products saw a 10% increase. Inflation expectations have created a ripple effect, yet Zhang turned down many orders. "The old pricing model is too transparent, and profit margins are already at rock bottom," he said. Recent deals involve orders of 500,000 to 600,000 meters, mainly targeting small clients, accounting for about a third of his annual business. "If we follow the current trend, who dares to quote prices for orders?" Meanwhile, 197 printing and dyeing enterprises across the county are operating at full capacity, significantly improving their performance. Sun Zhongfu, Economic and Trade Secretary of Shaoxing County, said that before October this year, sales in the printing and dyeing industry only grew by 5.8%, but profits jumped from -7.1% in February to 35.2% in October. As the textile industry accounts for roughly 70% of the county’s total industrial output, its recovery has driven broader economic improvements. In the first three quarters, industrial output in 20 industries increased in 31 sectors, up from 5 in the first half of the year, making up 64.5% of the total. The growth rate of 21 industries rose to 67.7% compared to June.

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