On October 25th, the *** exchange rate was reported to be 6.3425 to the central parity rate of the U.S. dollar, which again hit a new high since the exchange rate reform. What is the impact on the stock market in the face of the current situation in which the *** exchange rate has repeatedly been updated? How should we deal with the impact of *** appreciation on the sector? At 3:30 pm on the 26th, Tencent Securities (Weibo) (microblogging) invited to Dongxing Securities analyst Tan Ke (microblogging) for everyone to parse the problem online.
*** Speeding up the summit will not blindly increase the value of many people have such a concept, feel that before the process of the dollar has been unilaterally rising trend, there are netizens even pessimistic that the appreciation will not be heavy The mistake of the appreciation of the yen in the same year. In this regard, Tan Ke believes that there is no need to worry so much, and that the collapse will not happen. The economy of a country is not a child's play, and it will not end with a crash. And if the market thinks that *** is a bad element, then catching the top is not a bad run, but it is a good start.
At the same time, she also pointed out that since the exchange rate reform, we have successively appreciated nearly 7 years. If we use this length as a basis, then the subsequent appreciation is a short-term process. However, if measured in months, it is still in a state of accelerated peaking.
In regards to the question of whether the *** has been upgraded too fast against the US dollar, Tan may point out that simply looking at the exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is one-sided, because it involves political factors, but on the basis of several major global economies, Now a process where the appreciation tends to be gentle. From a number of macro perspectives, the space for the future appreciation of the *** has actually been small, and expectations for a sharp appreciation have weakened.
*** Appreciation of impact on the textile industry Tan Ke (microblogging) said in the interview that the appreciation of the *** is a negative factor for the textile and garment industry, resulting in export setbacks, which in the short term will lead to an increase in the price of export commodities in the international market. Weakened.
From a longer-term point of view, due to the influence of wages and other factors such as the cost of land prices, our exports are already deviating from the economies of scale, and the amount of trade in the future will be greatly reduced. Secondly, due to the internal structural transformation, we will serve the consumer. The transformation will also greatly reduce the export enterprises. From a long-term perspective, we will face a slowdown in the appreciation of the currency and even a devaluation.
She once again emphasized that the appreciation mainly affects the enterprises with larger exports or imports, and it is more difficult for retail investors to judge the international environment. They can participate in some non-cyclical, relatively stable consumer stocks.
When asked about the positive impact of the *** appreciation on those sectors, Tan Ke indicated that if he appreciated, the raw material or component import industry would also benefit, mainly including papermaking (pulp imports), steel (imported iron ore), and cars. (imports of some important parts and components), petrochemicals (import of crude oil), chemical fiber and plastics (import of raw materials), aviation (import of aviation equipment), import of high-grade fabrics for clothing, etc.).
At the same time, she also stated that the escalation will require specific analysis for different companies, depending on how dependent the buying company is on exports and that the logic and characteristics of textiles and apparel investment in the textile and apparel segment are also different.
Finally, Tan pointed out that the current appreciation of *** has been so long, and the expectation of continued appreciation in the future is weakening. At present, the negative factors for the textile sector's overall weakness are weakening.
*** Speeding up the summit will not blindly increase the value of many people have such a concept, feel that before the process of the dollar has been unilaterally rising trend, there are netizens even pessimistic that the appreciation will not be heavy The mistake of the appreciation of the yen in the same year. In this regard, Tan Ke believes that there is no need to worry so much, and that the collapse will not happen. The economy of a country is not a child's play, and it will not end with a crash. And if the market thinks that *** is a bad element, then catching the top is not a bad run, but it is a good start.
At the same time, she also pointed out that since the exchange rate reform, we have successively appreciated nearly 7 years. If we use this length as a basis, then the subsequent appreciation is a short-term process. However, if measured in months, it is still in a state of accelerated peaking.
In regards to the question of whether the *** has been upgraded too fast against the US dollar, Tan may point out that simply looking at the exchange rate against the U.S. dollar is one-sided, because it involves political factors, but on the basis of several major global economies, Now a process where the appreciation tends to be gentle. From a number of macro perspectives, the space for the future appreciation of the *** has actually been small, and expectations for a sharp appreciation have weakened.
*** Appreciation of impact on the textile industry Tan Ke (microblogging) said in the interview that the appreciation of the *** is a negative factor for the textile and garment industry, resulting in export setbacks, which in the short term will lead to an increase in the price of export commodities in the international market. Weakened.
From a longer-term point of view, due to the influence of wages and other factors such as the cost of land prices, our exports are already deviating from the economies of scale, and the amount of trade in the future will be greatly reduced. Secondly, due to the internal structural transformation, we will serve the consumer. The transformation will also greatly reduce the export enterprises. From a long-term perspective, we will face a slowdown in the appreciation of the currency and even a devaluation.
She once again emphasized that the appreciation mainly affects the enterprises with larger exports or imports, and it is more difficult for retail investors to judge the international environment. They can participate in some non-cyclical, relatively stable consumer stocks.
When asked about the positive impact of the *** appreciation on those sectors, Tan Ke indicated that if he appreciated, the raw material or component import industry would also benefit, mainly including papermaking (pulp imports), steel (imported iron ore), and cars. (imports of some important parts and components), petrochemicals (import of crude oil), chemical fiber and plastics (import of raw materials), aviation (import of aviation equipment), import of high-grade fabrics for clothing, etc.).
At the same time, she also stated that the escalation will require specific analysis for different companies, depending on how dependent the buying company is on exports and that the logic and characteristics of textiles and apparel investment in the textile and apparel segment are also different.
Finally, Tan pointed out that the current appreciation of *** has been so long, and the expectation of continued appreciation in the future is weakening. At present, the negative factors for the textile sector's overall weakness are weakening.
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