Multiple factors hype PTA short-term rebound

This week's market is still weak, last week's seemingly breakthrough oils died this week and the gains stifled, returned to the early shock interval, soybean meal is Powei fall, creating a new low of 2790 yuan / ton in the past year, other varieties are still weak shocks .

Relatively speaking, after the PTA1205 contract hit a new low of 7,818 yuan/ton last Friday, it suddenly stepped out of a long-yang line. Afterwards, the PTA1201 contract had an upside volume in several trading days, while the PTA1201 contract also took the same long-yang upside, taking the short-term rebound pattern.

In fact, multiple factors hype, PTA has a lot of short-term good in recent days, which has also become a hype factor in the rebound.

"Mainly speculation PTA production companies limit the production of insured topics." Shanghai medium-term researcher Li Zhoulei on November 23, accepting an interview with financial weekly reporter pointed out.

In the near future, the entire PTA industry chain is in a state of reduced production. Following the drop in operating rate of downstream looms from 72% to the current 55%, the price of polyester continued to decline, while the overall operating rate of the polyester industry fell from 88% in the last two weeks to 86.5%. The downstream downturn and its own losses Let the PTA plant gradually start overhauling. According to statistics, from the end of November to December, there are 4.45 million tons of production capacity maintenance ranging from 1 week to 1 month, involving Shanghai Petrochemical, Yizheng Chemical Fiber, Zhuhai BP, etc., in addition to normal maintenance, there may be some manufacturers due to previous losses And stoppages cut production.

In addition, another unexpected advantage for PTA lies in the explosion of Dalian Port (601880).

At 18:35 on November 22, two 100,000-ton two-tank tanks at No. 31 and No. 32 in the Dagang Group tank area of ​​Dalian Port Oil Terminal were struck by lightning. According to the latest news, the fire was basically controlled and did not cause damage. Casualties.

The same incident also happened last year. In July last year, the oil pipeline in Dalian exploded. This year, the oil tank exploded again. This year's oil spill and the PX project belonged to the same chemical zone. In July last year, under the stimulation of the explosion, PTA bottomed out, rising from the bottom price of around 7,600 yuan/ton to above 10,000 yuan/ton.

“In connection with the PTA** market brought by the last Dalian Fujia PX****, the impact of this incident on the market also caused the market to pay close attention to the price of PTA,” said Wang Zhenmin, a researcher with Huayuan, said in an interview with reporters. .

In addition, the rise in crude oil in the outer disk also brought upward momentum to the downstream PTA.

"The periphery has recently been speculating on the situation in Iran and the supply of crude oil is under pressure," said Chen Shaoyang, a researcher at China Finance Corporation.

In fact, the price of crude oil climbed all the way from October, rising from US$74/bbl to US$103.73/bbl. Despite the recent correction, it is still around US$97/bbl.

At the same time, the holding of the PTA Industry Conference in Zhejiang Xiaoshan this week also became a short-term catalyst for the market. Before the meeting, the market expects that the industry will issue a corresponding resolution on whether PTA is currently subject to the policy of limiting production insured prices.

From the spot price point of view, the price of PTA in East China is around 8,500 yuan/ton, which has risen for several consecutive trading days, but the increase is not great.

The outlook is still bearish despite short-term PTA rebound, but the recent rise can only be defined as a rebound, the market outlook is still not optimistic.

For the afternoon market, Chen Shaoyang revealed to reporters: “The fundamentals are still limited, and the long-term bearish view may lead to a technical rebound in the short term.”

Everbright ** believes that at present, the early negative has been slightly digested in the disk, the factory is gradually overhaul, PTA may be slightly stabilized near the current price, short-term will maintain a weak shock. In the medium term, it still needs to be based on whether the downstream terminal starts to resume or continues to stop production. From the current situation, the resistance to rising PTA is still large.

Wang Zhenmin also holds a similar view, he believes that, given that the PTA1201 gains have been large, early arbitrage orders have signs of profit, more than a handful of caution, the upper resistance of 8,450 yuan / ton; PTA1205 can maintain long thinking, resistance above 8280 yuan / ton .

In addition, due to the recent move for the month, the PTA1205 contract and PTA1201 contract began to pull up from last Wednesday, the spread gradually enlarged from 60 yuan, as of Wednesday, the spread has exceeded 200 yuan.

However, in spite of this, caution must be exercised in carrying out arbitrage transactions.

Li Zhoulei pointed out: "At present, arbitrage trading has a certain risk. Since the spread has exceeded 200 yuan, although there is a possibility of further expansion, the risk-to-income ratio will not be as high as it was on Wednesday, mainly because of 1201 positions and trading. The gap between the quantity of registered warehouse orders is too big, and it is a bit crowded, but the 1201 contract has seen from the deadline, there is still a month, and it is unlikely that the position will be forced, but with the transfer of funds, the main short position from 1201. Moving to 1205,1205 will certainly be under pressure, so the spread will increase."