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FX168 Financial News (Hong Kong) News Thursday (August 12), the financial market has been baptized by a series of economic data in the United States. The US retail sales and PPI, which are known as "terror data", are disappointing. The Fed’s interest rate hike is expected to cool down during the year. . The financial market fluctuated, and the US dollar index fell sharply after the release of retail sales data, but then it quickly recovered. Gold was successively hit by huge purchases and sell orders, and the market was stimulated to “over the trainâ€; crude oil also jumped up and down. It’s embarrassing.
As Americans reduced their purchases of clothing and other goods, US retail sales in July were unexpectedly flat, pointing to a slowdown in consumer spending, which could cool expectations of accelerated economic growth in the third quarter.
According to data released by the US Department of Commerce, US retail sales in July were flat, expected to increase by 0.4%, and the previous value was revised to increase by 0.8%.
(US retail sales chart source: Zerohod, FX168 financial network)
In July, core retail sales excluding autos, gasoline, construction materials and food services remained flat, rising by 0.5% in June.
Core retail sales data is most closely related to consumer spending in gross domestic product (GDP). Economists had expected overall retail sales to grow 0.4% last month and core sales rose 0.3%.
The Wall Street Journal said that US retail sales in July fell short of expectations, which will be a potential obstacle to the US economic growth in the second half of this year.
Reuters commented that the data was less than expected, mainly because Americans reduced the purchase of clothes and other items, indicating that consumer spending has slowed down, which may put pressure on economic growth in the third quarter; despite the data Poor, but due to the strong performance of the job market, housing prices and stock markets have risen, still enough to support consumer spending.
At the same time, due to the decline in the cost of services and energy commodities, producer prices in July recorded the largest decline in nearly a year. Consumer spending has cooled down and inflation is mild, suggesting that despite the strong job market, the Fed may not raise interest rates soon.
According to data released by the US Department of Labor, the US PPI monthly rate fell by 0.4% in July, the first decline since March this year, and the largest monthly decline since September last year, is expected to increase by 0.1%, the previous value increased by 0.5%.
(US PPI monthly rate chart source: FX168 financial network)
Reuters said that due to the continued decline in the price of energy products and services, and the further strengthening of the US dollar, both of them dragged down the producer price data in July, indicating that the current overall inflation environment in the United States is relatively low, making the Fed's interest rate hike facing considerable challenges.
Some market participants pointed out that as one of the forward-looking indicators of inflation, the unexpected weakness of today's PPI will undoubtedly make the Fed's 2% inflation target challenged.
“The Fed sees consumer spending as a top priority for economic activity, and this report is another obstacle to raising interest rates in September,†said John Ryding, chief economist at RDQ Economics.
After the weaker-than-expected data was released, US debts were higher, the US dollar fell against a basket of currencies, US stocks were lower, and non-US currencies and gold oils soared. However, the subsequent trend quickly changed dramatically. The US dollar index quickly bottomed out, and all the gold and silver retreats turned down. The oil price was once dragged down by the increase in the number of active Baker Hughes drilling.
The US dollar index once fell to 95.25 in the short-term, the lowest level since June 23, and then recovered some of the gains to rise to around 95.69.
(US dollar index 30 minutes chart source: FX168 financial network)
Spot gold short-term surged more than 10 US dollars, an increase of more than 1.3%, the highest hit 1355.80 US dollars / ounce, but then retreated all the day's gains, to around 1337 US dollars / ounce.
(Spot gold 30 minutes chart source: FX168 financial network)
Spot silver once rose 1%, refreshing to a high of $20.22 per ounce, but then quickly smoothed all gains and fell, falling below the $20/oz mark to trade around $19.70 per ounce.
(Spot silver 30 minutes chart source: FX168 financial network)
According to reports, COMEX's most active December gold futures contract reached 6,044 lots in the morning at 00:48 am on the 13th, Beijing time. The large sell order price caused the spot gold price to fall below $1,340 per ounce.
Earlier in the day, a large number of purchases emerged after the release of retail sales data, which once prompted gold to mark more than $10. COMEX's most active December gold futures contract reached 6045 lots in Beijing at 20:30, and a large number of buy orders pushed up the spot gold price by $12.
WTI crude oil once broke through the 44 US dollars / barrel mark, refreshing the day high to 44.57 US dollars / barrel, the day rose more than 2%. However, after the number of active drillings was announced, the US oil-dyed oil fell nearly 0.70 US dollars in short-term, hitting 43.84 US dollars / barrel and 46.32 US dollars / barrel low respectively.
(US oil 5 minutes chart source: FX168 financial network)
US oil service company Baker Hughes released data on Friday, showing that the number of active oil drilling in the US increased by 15 to 396 in the week ended Aug. 12, 2016, for the seventh consecutive week of growth, while hitting February. The highest level since the 26th, there have been 10 weeks of growth in the past 11 weeks.
(Source: Zerohedge, FX168 Financial Network)
According to well-known financial blog Zerohedge, the total number of oil drilling in the United States has increased from 10 weeks in the past 11 weeks since it recorded a low of 316 in May this year. This week, it has increased 15 times to the largest single since December 2015. Weekly increase, so after the data WTI and oil have partially retreated earlier gains.
Morgan Stanley analyst Ashley Petersen said earlier this week that despite the recent rebound in oil prices, oil prices are expected to fall further in the next 1-3 months, and the market futures premium will be widened; the next target of oil prices may look $35 per barrel.
After the release of today's data, the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York cut its third-quarter GDP forecast by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow model revised the US third-quarter GDP growth forecast from 3.7% to 3.5%.
Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at Think Markets, said: "In July, retail sales (excluding cars) grew even lower. We think retail sales data truly reflects consumer spending, and today's data tells us that consumption is very slow. The data will be The third quarter began to have an impact."
The Federal Reserve carried out its first rate hike in the past 10 years last December. Although a Reuters poll on Thursday showed that most economists expect to raise interest rates again in December, financial markets are currently expected to raise interest rates next year.
Reuters said that the US federal funds futures rate shows that traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 17% in September. The US federal funds futures rate shows that traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates by 43% in December, compared with expectations of 47%.
According to Bloomberg, US federal funds futures prices show a 50/50 probability of raising interest rates around March 2017.
Jon Adams, senior investment strategist at BMO Global Asset Management, said: "Before the release of the data, the federal funds rate is expected to be half of the rate hike and no interest rate hike in December, but now the traders are pricing the Fed until May next year. Will raise interest rates."
TD Securities pointed out that retail sales in July showed that the US economic start in the third quarter was "unstable"; the Fed is expected to maintain a patience position after the release of retail data.
According to Tom di Galoma, CEO of Seaport Global Holdings, "Based on PPI and retail sales data, all current indications seem to indicate that the Fed has clearly left the table this year."
However, Jim O'Sullivan, chief US economist at High Frequency Economics, who is known as the "Phelps" in economic forecasting, said recently that a strong labor market will force the Fed to raise interest rates. MarketWatch recently quoted O'Sullivan as saying that the Fed will feel more pressure to raise interest rates in the next few months as wages rise as the labor market becomes tighter.
O'Sullivan said: "We have begun to see the acceleration of wage figures (up), as well as core inflation... which is in line with the idea of ​​being close to full employment."
According to foreign media reports, after adjusting for inflation, the average US hourly wage in June rose by 0.1%. Historical data shows that the average US hourly wage has been steadily increasing since the beginning of 2015. After adjusting for seasonal factors, the US consumer price index (CPI) rose by 0.2% in June from the previous month. Previously, the CPI in May and April increased by 0.2% and 0.4% respectively. The core CPI in June also rose by 0.2% from the previous month.
O'Sullivan said that the recent economic growth in the United States has been disappointing, but the labor market has continued to improve and a large number of jobs have been created. Although the Fed is not satisfied with the weak GDP growth rate, GDP is not the Fed's primary target for low unemployment and stable inflation. O'Sullivan expects that the most likely time for the Fed to raise interest rates next time is December this year.
Jon Hilsenrath, a Wall Street Journal reporter named "Fed News Agency", also wrote on Tuesday (August 9) that the US dollar has more room to breathe because of the relatively weaker dollar after the recent Fed statement, suggesting a rate hike. It may be earlier than the market expects (the current financial market is expected to wait until 2017 to raise interest rates).
Hilsenrath pointed out that in the one-and-a-half-year period before the Fed raised interest rates in December last year, the dollar rose more than 25% against a basket of currencies. In contrast, the US dollar index has fallen nearly 4% so far this year, which has caused concern. As Fed officials assess whether they will raise short-term interest rates in the next few months, the relatively weaker dollar has given them a reason to worry.
Hilsenrath wrote: "If the dollar exchange rate continues to strengthen, it will make the Fed raise interest rates more difficult. By pushing down the import price, the strong dollar exchange rate will hinder the Fed to achieve its goal of pushing inflation up to 2%. At the same time, the strong dollar It will also damage economic growth and employment by curbing exports. The weaker exchange rate will have the opposite effect, which will alleviate concerns about the adverse factors facing economic growth and inflation when officials consider raising interest rates."
Hilsenrath concluded: "Other central banks are relaxing monetary policy, but in contrast to the sharp rise in the US dollar before the interest rate hike in December last year, the dollar's rise seems to have stalled. If Fed officials have confidence in the overall economic environment to support interest rate hikes, This will make it easier for them to implement interest rate hikes."
Beijing time 02:12, the US dollar reported 95.69, spot gold reported 1337.46 US dollars / ounce, spot silver reported 19.75 US dollars / ounce, the US WTI crude oil futures price reported 44.39 US dollars / barrel, Brent crude oil futures price reported 46.82 US dollars / barrel.
Proofreading: Sui Bin
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