After the non-agricultural data came out on Friday, the dollar has already eaten all the gains since Trump took office because the data fell below market expectations. On Thursday, former US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) director James Comey will Going to the Senate Intelligence Committee to testify, his publicly exposed fabric will provide clues about his interaction with President Trump in the past few months. The hearing is likely to shift the focus of the market to the impact of the Trump scandal. Previously, Trump's "Leak Door" boosted gold to break through the 1260 mark.
With the market's anticipation of Trump's reforms receding, the dollar has lost its momentum to re-innovation, and this round of rising prices is nearing completion. Once the European Central Bank explicitly withdraws from QE's expectations or the Fed's long-term interest rate hike is unsustainable, the dollar will once again break down. Trump, who has recently been riddled with various "doors", may have difficulty putting all his energy into issues such as budget and tax reform.
Once his campaign promises were eventually shrunk by Congress, discussions and voting on reform proposals were repeatedly postponed, and the decline in governing satisfaction is likely to cause the ruling party to lose next-term elections next year. At present, the dollar has completely retreated the increase since Trump was elected. Before the market renewed confidence in Trump's reforms, the US dollar index could hardly return to its high point at the end of last year. The US economic recovery is not strong. Once the US economy continues to perform below expectations, expectations for interest rate hikes and contraction will continue to weaken.
In Europe, the UK will hold a general election on Thursday. The election will be held from 14:00-05:00 Beijing time. At 19:45, the ECB will also announce interest rate resolutions; at 20:30 in the evening, ECB President Draghi (Mario) Draghi) held a press conference;
On Friday: the results of the British election will be announced. If the gap between the British Conservative Party and the Labour Party is large, the results of the UK election will be announced at 10:00-11:00 Beijing time. If the support rate between the parties is close, the result will be It will be announced later.
The London terrorist attacks on the weekend also caused the market risk aversion to heat up quickly. Spot gold broke through the 1280 mark on Monday. On Saturday night local time, a truck suddenly crashed into the pedestrian on the London Bridge. The attacker then jumped out of the car and used a knife to attack. Almost at the same time, the attackers rushed into a bar in the Borough Market near London Bridge with a knife. The incident has caused at least 7 deaths, 48 ​​injuries, and 3 attackers were killed by the police on the spot.
The incident also brought the UK elections next Thursday back into focus. Some analysts said that the successive terrorist attacks were pressured and added to British Prime Minister Teresa May, and their re-election as prime ministers were no longer stable. However, whether Teresa or Corbin won the general election on June 8, the terrorist attacks have deeply imprinted the future policy direction of the UK. At present, there are frequent terrorist attacks in the UK and the level of terrorism remains high. The “Islamic State†extremist organization claims responsibility for the terrorist attacks in London.
In Asia, the renminbi continues to rise against the US dollar, and many countries support the “One Belt, One Road†policy. China has friendly exchanges with other countries.
In terms of crude oil, although the last OPEC meeting agreed to extend the production reduction agreement for 9 months, 14 Wall Street investment banks believe that the production reduction agreement has disappointed the market, OPEC has not expanded the scale of production reduction, and does not seem to propose the future oil market. Clear strategy; therefore, the investment bank expects that the average price of oil will be $56/barrel this year, and the average price of oil will be $54/barrel, down by $1 from the April survey. At the same time, the investment bank expects the average price of oil in 2018 to be US$59/barrel, down by US$9 from the survey of 1 year ago; it is expected to be US$60/barrel in 2019, down by US$16 compared with the survey in the same period last year. They believe that even if the OPEC oil-producing countries comply with the agreement, they still cannot change the dilemma of the oil market surplus; a senior energy regulator of the International Energy Agency said that the OECD crude oil inventories reached a record high of more than 3 billion barrels last year. At the beginning of this year, stocks increased again, only slightly falling by 32 million barrels in March.
BSFX Boss financial analysts believe that the current gold is most likely to restore the bull market, the next UK's safe-haven factors, the instability of the dollar zone, gold bulls market positions will increase its upside potential. As for the price of oil, we need to stop buying and we can buy in the middle line. After all, we will enter a period of shock and eat down the decline. However, from the overall situation, the world is generally skeptical about the mood of crude oil. Will the Eurozone be good before the news in the UK? I do not think so. The US and Japan and the British pound have given a good entry position at the beginning of the month. We are now waiting for the signal of the turnaround to come in.
List of important speeches and risk events this week
Monday: Pentecost, Germany is closed for one day;
Tuesday: 12:30 The Reserve Bank of Australia announces interest rate resolutions and policy statements;
Wednesday: 00:00 EIA announces monthly short-term energy outlook report;
Thursday: The United Kingdom holds a general election. The general election time is 14:00-05:00 Beijing time; 19:45 European Central Bank announces interest rate resolution; 20:30 European Central Bank President Mario Draghi holds a press conference;
Friday: The results of the UK general election are announced. If the British Conservative Party and the Labour Party have a large gap in support, the results of the UK election will be announced at 10:00-11:00 Beijing time. If the support rate between the parties is close, the result will be later. It will be time to announce.
List of important data this week
Monday: 09:45 China May financial services PMI; 15:50 France May service PMI final value; 15:55 Germany May service industry PMI final value; 16:00 euro zone May service industry PMI final value ;16:30 UK service industry PMI in May; 21:45 US May Markit service industry PMI final value; 22:00 US May ISM non-manufacturing PMI, US May Employment Market Condition Index (LMCI), US April Factory order monthly rate;
Tuesday: 12:30 Australia to June 6 Australian Reserve interest rate decision; 16:30 euro zone June Sentix investor confidence index; 17:00 euro zone April retail sales monthly rate;
Wednesday: 04:30 US to June 2nd week API crude oil inventories; 09:30 Australia first quarter GDP annual rate; 15:30 UK May Halifax seasonally adjusted house price index monthly rate; 16:00 China May foreign exchange reserves 17:00 Eurozone first quarter GDP annual rate final value; 22:30 US to June 2 week EIA crude oil inventories;
Thursday: 07:50 Japan's first quarter real GDP annualized rate correction, Japan's April trade account; 10:00 China May trade account; 10:50 China May US dollar trade account; 13:45 Switzerland Unemployment rate in May; 14:45 French April trade account; 15:15 Swiss May CPI monthly rate; 19:45 Eurozone to June 8 ECB main refinancing rate; 20:30 US to June The number of people claiming unemployment benefits at the beginning of the week on the 3rd; 22:30 EIA natural gas inventory in the US to the week of June 2;
Friday: 09:30 China's May CPI annual rate; 14:00 Germany's April quarterly trade account, Germany's April quarterly regular account; 14:45 France's April industrial output monthly rate; 16:30 UK April industrial Monthly output rate, UK monthly manufacturing output rate in April, UK April adjusted commodity trade account; 22:00 US April wholesale sales monthly rate.
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Last week, crude oil continued its decline for one day. Now the strength of the decline has eased. It is not ruled out that the bottom will be formed this week. The bottom of the medium-term formation must break through the important resistance level of 51.45. The intraday trading can temporarily break the bargain, and the stop loss is set at 49.31. It is expected to challenge 51.45 today.
ã€gold】
Last Friday, under the influence of the extreme non-agricultural, both long and short sides were beaten. From the strength of the data release, gold is expected to hit the integer mark of 1300. The intraday trading will continue to be bargain-hunting, and the stop loss will be set to 1279.67. Once it falls, it is expected to start to adjust the market to repair the moving average. However, the position of the callback may only be around 1275. Therefore, it is mainly based on bargain-hunting. It is not recommended to short in the callback stage.
[US/Swiss]
The strange non-agricultural dream of breaking the rebound, we also been reminding last week that from the strength of the dollar's decline, the decline is far from over. Now that the US dollar has reached a new low, the intraday trading is still dominated by short rallies, and the stop loss is set at 0.9649. Once the intraday break through this place, there is hope to get out of a wave of rally, but now it is just a rebound.
[Europe/US]
With the help of non-agricultural land, the euro hit a new high in the past six months. The short-term rallies of the intraday trading were short, with a stop loss of 1.1280. Once the intraday break through this point, you can start to re-do more.
[Pound / US]
The pound can be used to ride the wind, but the terrorist attacks frequently increase the number of British elections. The market has no confidence in the pound. From the transaction point of view, it is still bargain-hunting, stop loss setting 1.2828
[US/Japan]
Due to the non-agricultural influence, the United States and Japan directly broke the previous period of decline, and now continue to wait for the rebound and short, the high point of the rebound can reach 110.70
The above is only a personal opinion, it is recommended to operate in a light warehouse, for reference only. Investment is risky and requires caution when entering the market. BSFX Boss Financial will not be liable for any loss or loss (including but not limited to any loss of profits) that may result from the direct or indirect use or reliance on such information.
(Editor: Wang Zhiqiang HF013)
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